The Marketing of Noynoy, Villar and Gibo - parts 1 and 2

MarketingRx for Feb 05-10

 

"The Marketing of Noynoy, Manny and Gibo"  - Part 1

 

By Dr Ned Roberto & Ardy Roberto

 

 

Q:  We are another NGO who is unlike the ones who have been asking you to apply your social marketing in analyzing the coming presidential election.  

 

First of all, we DO NOT believe marketing or social marketing should further confuse what's already a confusing political scenario preparing for a critical point in this nation's history.  We think calling this manipulative practice of marketing as social marketing won't absolve the practice of its Machiavellian character.

 

We say you are confusing the voting public by calling their coming voting behavior as "low involvement behavior."  How can you say that when you know that this coming election is all about this country's next six years as continuing misery or as misery reversal? Isn't it a fundamental truth in education that if you tell a child that he's useless, he will henceforth behave as if he's useless?  That's the same with voters.  Tell them this election is low involvement and they will so regard it. (Please keep out of politics and social science--just stay in marketing.) - Mr Confidential

 

A:  WE APPRECIATE YOUR frankness.  We should be just as frank to tell you that we cannot say the same about how "politically correct" you delivered them.  Allow us to respond to each of the two major points of your note.

 

We start with the easiest, namely, your equating marketing with social marketing.  Even such grant-giving global foundations from whom most high performing and more reputable NGOs obtain their funding support, have since more than 20 years ago recognized social marketing's insightful contributions.  In fact, most now require social and economic projects to integrate social marketing into their interventions. These are global foundations like those in Japan, U.S., Canada and Europe.  If this is unknown to you, then it's unfortunate that you have allowed your knowledge of marketing and social marketing to remain in the vintage of 50s and 60s.  A little updating will do your mindset some good and lessen your distrust and understandable indignation over marketing's checkered past.

 

              

Low involvement

Your second point challenges our inference that the voting behavior in this coming election is low involvement.  That conclusion draws from the survey data from both SWS and Pulse-Asia.  When probed as to why they will vote so-and-so candidate, most Class D (borderline poor) and Class E (extreme poor) voters say something like this one who was the more articulate of those interviewed: "Sa totoo lang, para sakin parepareho lang lahat yang mga kandidatong yang.  Simula pa ke Cory, wala namang kahit isang presidentena nakapag ahon samin ni kaunti sa kahirapan."  (Truly, for me these candidates are all the same.  Starting with Cory, not a single president has brought us even a little bit out of poverty.)   

 

Some of the voting poor had also been heard to say in answer to the question of how important to them is this coming election: "Ano ba naman ang gagawin namin sa darating na election?  Sa totoo lang, yan naman ay limang minuto sa isang araw sa anim na taon sa aming buhay na pagkatapos niya ay magkakalimutan na uli tayo."  (What do we have to do in this coming election?  In truth, that's just five minutes in one day within 6 years in our life, after which we're back to forgetting each other.)  Is this kind of attitude that you would count as correlated with high involvement?  

 

All these are said out of the past 20 or more years of experience of the vast population of the poor with what they saw our past 4 presidents had done (or rather had not done) for them and their poverty.  And remember that A.C. Nielsen estimates the poor to now account for 90% of our total nationwide population! 

 

You are probably correct in thinking that voting behavior among the poor was once high involvement.  That must have been during Cory's term.  But thereafter especially with the last two administrations, it had come to what our quoted verbatims from the interviewed poor implied.  For the great majority of the poor, voting in the coming election doesn't matter anymore.  This explains why before Cory died, all leading 4 to 5 presidential candidates were very close to one another in their respective shares of votes.

 

We are out of space, so get your copy of the Inquirer next Friday to read the conclusion and discover why Villar is catching up with Noynoy (and what Noynoy can do about this) and why Gibo's advertising is keeping him from advancing in the polls.

Keep your questions coming.  Send them to us at drnedmarketingRx@gmail.com or marketingrx@pldtdsl.net . God bless!

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MarketingRx for Feb 12-010

 

"The Marketing of Noynoy, Manny and Gibo"  - Part 2

 

By Dr Ned Roberto & Ardy Roberto

Many of us thought that after Cory died and when suddenly Noynoy out of nowhere registered a 50% share of votes, most voters' low involvement just as suddenly transformed into high involvement.  That was more out of a sense of hope that took over our more scientific reading of the survey statistics.

 

We were brought back to the hard reality of the poor voters as the literature on low involvement in consumer behavior research predicted.  Low involvement voters like low involvement consumers behave according to the dictates of what's on top-of-mind and/or what's on top-of-heart.  What they are aware of and what draws and holds their attention drives their purchase behavior or in the present discussion their voting intention behavior registered in the SWS and Pulse-Asia surveys as a candidate's share of votes. 

 

Explaining Villar's Rise

              And those are exactly the voter responses that Manny Villar's advertising concentrated on generating: voter top-of-mind awareness and top-of-heart attention-drawing and attention-holding among both borderline poor and extreme poor voters.  These quickly translated in the last survey into an increase of Villar's share of votes from 24% to 33% to last month's 35%.  That's not at all that far from Noynoy's slowly falling 44% share of votes and last month's 42% especially when you factor in the two ratios' respective margin of error.

 

Single-mindedness.Another notable characteristic of low involvement behavior is how it is influenced by "single-minded" message.  It is easily confused by a communication message with "multiple claims."  Just consider how single-mindedness is the very essence of Villar's advertisement.  Contrast that to the Noynoy TV ad promising more than half a dozen "evils" to fight against and ending with a promise never to steal and be corrupt.  To the upper and middle class (which according to the latest estimate from A.C.Nielsen makes up only 8% to 10% of total Philippine population) this may be a top priority election concern and issue.  But to the 90% poor, according to the SWS and Pulse-Asia surveys, this ranks as a low #7 priority election issue.  And you don't need space science to appreciate how Villar's recent use of Dolphy (an icon with the poor) is going to be a real knock-out.  Of course, we'll have to wait for this month's survey to confirm or disconfirm.  But in all these, which candidate do you think will resonate more with the vast majority of the voting poor and be their top-of-mind and top-of-heart presidential choice? 

 

Gibo, the pilot?

Gibo's advertising message and execution inside an airplane that he's piloting is even more alien and most likely alienating to the poverty voters.  How many percent of the poor had ever seen the inside of a plane or the inside of the plane's pilot cockpit?  Talk of the significance of having an ad with high identification with its target audience and you'll have to give a really low failing grade to Gibo's TV commercial.

         

     Our reading of low involvement in the poor voters' regard for their voting behavior in the coming election is not an opinion.  It's drawn from solid and valid survey based data.  It's your assumption that because for you "this coming election is all about this country's future," then it must be so with the rest of the voters in the country including the 90% poor.  Just because you yourself are a voter does not mean what is high involvement to you and your NGO is also high involvement to the poor.  Learn to acquire EQ (Empathy Quotient) for the poor and you'll become of more help to them and more understanding of those outside your more noble profession.

 

What to do now, Noynoy and Gibo?

              Please do not think that our analysis is an endorsement of Villar.  The same analysis benefits the other two candidates, Noynoy and Gibo if they are to ask:  "So what do we do now?"  To Noynoy our low involvement analysis says clearly: "Stop the bleeding of your share of votes.  Consider what the low-involvement concept prescribes for you especially in your advertisement.  Stop promising too many things.  Do a Villar and be single minded."  And to Gibo?  At this point, social marketing does not know what to tell him to do but it knows what to tell him he should not do.  Stop executing your TV commercials in a context that has low-identification value to the poor voters.

 

Keep your questions coming.  Send them to us at drnedmarketingRx@gmail.com or marketingrx@pldtdsl.net . God bless!

Online Buying Behavior

MarketingRx for January 29-010

 

"What should we understand about online consumer buying behavior?"

 

By Dr Ned Roberto & Ardy Roberto

 

 

Q:  We're ready to try internet advertising and online marketing.  When the internet came around, we recalled that the gateway to the internet for consumers was dialing-up.  That technology was very restricting.  But the rapid penetration of broadband service allowed consumers quick access to the internet plus fast download and viewing.  And today, most consumers are spending more and more time on the internet.  In fact, during a conference, we heard you cite a study that found teeners spending 3 hours on the internet for every hour viewing TV. 

 

What should we understand about online consumer buying behavior?  We hope you don't mind giving us some simple and practical tips.

 

 

A:   THE STUDY YOU MENTIONED is the McCann-Erickson research on the youth.  This was a survey.  So the 3:1 ratio is a claimed proportion.  It was a young consumer's estimate when asked the question.  So in terms of actual behavior, it's doubtful that the relationship between the two figures is strictly linear.  In other words, a youth who's in front of his desktop at home and during those 3 hours is also viewing in the corner of his eyes what's on TV.  When something catches his attention on TV, he pauses his chatting or YouTube viewing and gets engaged on the TV program.  And then shifts back.  Casual observation of this back and forth multi-tasking has been reported with high frequency although we have yet to see its full and systematic documentation. 

 

As to advertising online, we suppose you know that you still remember how this all started with simple banner ads and sponsorships.  Simple as they were, they already had a distinct advantage over the traditional advertising.  Those banners and sponsorships both were able to link the viewing consumer back to their respective advertiser's web page or promo page.  There the consumer could get more information about the ad, the advertised product and the advertiser.  That was a rather crude beginning but already an engaging form of interactivity.

 

In the new and ever changing broadband (and wifi and 3G) technology, the ad campaign has become more sophisticated.  There are now video creative features that lend a dynamic character to the ads.  It's a sharp contrast to how static were banners of the previous decade of internet ads.

 

Search Marketing

And now let's go to your question: what to understand about consumer buying behavior when they do internet shopping.  Scott Berg, the Worldwide Media Director at Hewlett Packard coined the insighting discipline for this: "search marketing." 

The term "search" captures the essence of how an online consumer starts her internet shopping.  In this searching behavior, your consumer depends upon her command of "key words."  Some have very few, others a whole lot.  Those who have a few soon learn more terms.  Those who already knew a whole lot also learn much more. 

 

All learn because you, as internet advertiser and marketer, drive them.  Just look at how Amazon.com does this with (among others) its recommendations on what other books to buy when buying one title.  But this is getting ahead of the game.

 

Your search marketing program starts or has its key and lead variable in where and how you land in a search engine "listing."  The more you are at the top of a page, the more you get click-throughs.  Plus this:  The more relevant consumers find you in the listing, the more your click-throughs.  Or at least these two are what almost all of us in cyber space marketing assumes to be the case.   

 

As you can see, here what is critical to understand about the internet shoppers is what key words and terms they will use and are learning in their search buying.  That defines the insighting research you have to do and keep on doing.  We say "keep on doing" because there's continuing learning among consumers. 

 

Exciting CUR issues

When you get into this kind of consumer understanding research (CUR), the findings often challenges your assumptions.  That includes our assumption that being on top of the list is where the premium shopper "real estate" is to be found.  It's analogous to our own supermarket shopper in-store behavior study.  In most cases, that premium shelf location in the supermarket turns out to be not the entrance to the aisle but the shelf space that's in the shopper's second or third step as she enters.  This is because in most cases, she gets into an aisle fast and then slows down on her second or third step.

 

In any case, this is the kind exciting CUR issues you are up against.  But your raising the question tells us you're way ahead of other online advertisers and marketers who are proceeding with their search marketing campaign with "rules-of-thumb" and unvalidated internet consumer behavior assumptions. As Berg says in his HP blog post, Digital Ignorance, education is key for marketers (especially the CMO) in this day and age of digital marketing. Make sure that you continue asking questions AND continue searching for answers from different sources.

  

Please keep your questions coming.  Send them to us at drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com or  MarketingRx@pldtDSL.net. God bless!

 

Help! We've Been Missing Our Targets

We'll be referring to this in our column this Friday, so we're reposting this in our blog. Hope this helps you Strat Planners!

MarketingRx for December 4-09

“Help!We've been missing our targets...”

By Dr Ned Roberto & Ardy Roberto

Q:  This year it looks like we’ll again be below the market performance we set at our corporate strategy plan that we crafted before the start of this year.  This below-the-target record was true of last year and the year before. 

We do our annual corporate strategy planning September of each year.  We devote 3 full days for this planning at an out-of-town hotel.  We start by having outside speakers to tell us what to expect about the coming year’s PEST (political, economic, social and technological) environment.  This is followed by a SWOT analysis and a review of the company’s past two year’s sales and profit performances.  From this analysis and review, we derive the direction to take for the coming year and the strategies to bring us to the chosen direction.

But we’ve been missing our targets for the past 6 years.  Someone told us that he heard you once in a conference say that when something like what we’re experiencing happens, it’s likely that the strategy planning process is flawed or wrong.  Can you tell us what’s wrong with what we’re doing?

A:  That's a difficult question to answer. So, we WILL ANSWER BASED SOLELY on your brief and general description of your corporate strategy planning process.  We can be more specific if you were also specific about what happened between the time you strategized in September of the previous year and the end or toward the end of the current year.

Benchmarking with Jack

In the particular context of your question, we’d like to answer by benchmarking against a known and acknowledged classic in corporate strategy planning.  This is Jack Welch’s system at General Electric (GE).  Awarded by Fortune Magazine as the “Manager of the Century,” Welch’s strategy planning for GE has the enviable record of never having missed its target market share, sales and profit numbers.  The elements of Welch strategy planning evolved over his 20-year tenure at GE.  They are found in his two books, Straight from the Gut (2001) and Winning (2005), and in the two books about his leadership at GE, namely, Jack Welch and the GE Way by Robert Slater (1998), and Jacked Up: the Inside Story of How Jack Welch Talked GE into Becoming the World’s Greatest Company by Bill Lane (2007). 

In its final form, here’s the way Jack Welch has developed his GE corporate strategy planning system.  Incidentally, Welch conducts and facilitates the sessions himself.   There are four sets of planning sessions in the entire system and each has its own specific focus. 

Every Six months

The system’s first part is an every Spring and Fall strategy planning for the intermediate term.  The purpose here is to take a serious look at each of GE’s strategic business units (SBUs) along a 3-year time horizon.  Why every six months?  That’s a Jack Welch signature thinking.  The visibility of the longer-term gets less and less unpredictable as the short-term unfolds.

Annual stratplan:how to beat...

The second part is the annual strategy planning.  That happens every January and takes place in a Florida resort, the Boca Raton Hotel & Club.  The planning sessions here are devoted to sharing of “best practices” and to setting each SBU’s coming year’s business priorities.  Each strategic plan ends with a budget.  Welch’s sets two rules for what he regards as a “good focused budget.”  The budget must focused on answering these two questions: (1) “How can you beat last year’s performance?” or how can you successfully compete against yourself?  (2) “What is your competition doing, and how can you beat them?”       

"Implement like hell"

The third and fourth parts are related to each other because they fall under what Welch regards as the more consequential component of strategy planning.  This is “execution” or strategy implementation on which Welch’s attitude says: “Strategy is actually very straightforward.  You pick a general direction and implement like hell…  (So) when it comes to strategy, if you want to win, then ponder less and do more. ”   

There are two critical components in strategy implementation: (1) people planning and management, and (2) operations planning and management. 

Management retreat

For Welch, planning for people management is a twice a year “retreat.”  The retreat’s focus is on how to continue empowering his executives in each of GE’s SBUs.  The planning sessions therefore reviews and insights into the changing managerial and staff needs for each SBU.  The review and insighting are directed at enabling each SBU in attaining their market performance targets.  It is here that Welch applies his famous 20-70-10 formula for managing people.  He generously rewards and further sharpens via tailored fit training, his top 20% executives and their staff, and fires the 10% bottom performers and laggards.  What about the middle 70%?  Here’s Welch’s policy and counsel to his SBU heads: “Spend half of your time evaluating and coaching the middle 70% -- those who are neither disrupting nor shining.”

During the sessions in this people planning, Welch relies heavily on his HRD (Human Resource Department).  When asked by Fortune magazine in an interview who is a good HR head, Welch quipped: “The best HR type?  A pastor and a parent in the same package.” 

Finally, the planning for operations is a 2-day every quarter event.  The focus here is on the initiatives and activities closely related to the agenda set during the annual strategy plan.  Welch also takes the two days as the occasion where he can identify the company’s future leaders as gleaned from their responses during the sessions to the challenges of change and issues. 

Prescriptions

So there’s your model for transforming your own strategy planning into a more doable and attainment empowered planning system.  The prescriptions for the needed transformation are:

1^st.  Separate the planning sessions for the 3-year and the annual, and for the people and the operations necessary for effectively implementing the annual strategy.  Don’t compress all four into one planning schedule.     

2^nd.  Schedule the occurrence and frequency of each of these 4 components of the

              entire strategy planning over different times of the year.

3^rd.  Give a specific focus for each planning of the 4 components but relate each

focus to the attainment of the direction and priorities of the annual strategy plan.

Keep your questions coming.  Send them to us at drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com or  MarketingRx@pldtDSL.net. God bless!

Entrepreneur's Gut Feel Predictions for 2010

MarketingRx for Jan 1-010 and Jan 8, 2010

The entrepreneur's gut feel for 2010 (part 1)

or 7 gut feel predictions for 2010

Happy New Year! For this week's column, the junior MRxer looked into his magic entrepreneur's gut to give you seven market predictions for 2010. Here we go:

# 1. In 2010 money will continue to flow in from OFWs all over the world. The World Bank got it wrong, says, economist Bernardo Villegas. The self-proclaimed prophet of bloom, in the midst of all the gloom prophets, has already been proven right. OFW money is not tightening. There's even an increase in remittances. Why? Pinoy OFWs have not been among those axed for employment by companies in the worldwide tightening of belts. Villegas has funny anecdotal evidence as well, which he shares when he makes the rounds of the speaking circuit. “Filipinos take a bath every day—sometimes even twice a day.” Was one reason he cited. The hotel and restaurant industry likes the fact that Pinoys smell good. The workers of nationalities that smell like a deodorant-free underarm at the end of a long hot day? Bye bye! Nothing personal, okay?

Because of this, expect the current growth in retail to be sustained. And we're not talking about single digit growth baby, we're looking at double digit growth! There's a reason why the Sys and Ayalas also have double digit grins this year—and that's definitely one of them (albeit a SM Mall going under water during Ondoy for the Sys and a sensational daytime armed robbery in upscale Greenbelt 5 for the Ayalas.)

So what to do with the continued flow of money from our Expat Pinoys? Don't hold back on promoting your real estate projects (especially those that are above sea level). Go get your lion's share of the 13^th and 14^th month bonuses that were released and remitted. Offer trade-ins for water damaged properties? Hmm. Whatever, the offer is, go and get business.

#2. Pinoy consumers become even more "savings savvy". Despite the continued spending splurge mentioned above, Pinoys will save more. Well, never mind the “kaputting” of Rural Banks owned by the Legacy group that went under at the start of 2009. Banks are reporting that Filipinos are saving more money with double digit growth in the savings deposits. That's a good sign since Pinoys are one of the worst savers in Asia. We are not a nation of conscientious savers. One of the blessings, I guess of the global economic crisis, is that it has taught us to be savvier with our money. Government has done it's small part by doubling the amount that your deposits are insured to P500,000, thereby instilling more than a sliver of confidence in consumers. Still, banks offer investment vehicles that offer rates that are just a little over the inflation rate. With author/speakers like Topaks Colayco (Pera Mo, Paluaguin Mo and One Wealthy Nation founder), Chinkee Tan (For Richer or For Poorer and 'Till Debt Do Us Part), Bo Sanchez (8 Ways to be Truly Rich) and Larry Gamboa (Think Rich Pinoy!) educating more and more consumers on how to invest and be smart with their money—there is opportunity in this area for marketers of legitimate investment vehicles.

"Your money is best invested in a business" is the sentiment of many. Marketers of affordable franchises, especially food cart franchises will boom. So take advantage of the Entrepreneurship fever. On the other hand,  Mutual fund offerings will be in again. Companies like Citisec online will benefit. Insurance companies offering investment products other than the usual insurance-alone options will see a boom in 2010. Gold will continue to increase in value and be a safe haven for investors (as compared to the dollar and even the Euro), so companies that will offer investment vehicles based on Gold or gold itself, instead of the usual cash currencies, will literally be Geese that will be laying golden eggs.

#3. Feel Good Luxury Products will continue to do good this 2010. The middle class whose cars and houses were flooded and water damaged during Ondoy and Pepeng, will turn to products that will make them feel good. They will want to treat themselves to something they think “they deserve” because of all that they have been through. It was marketing author and guru, Josiah Go who first mentioned this in his fearless post-Ondoy marketing predictions that he published in his Facebook account (and which my father and I later re-published in our MarketingRx column last October). It is worth echoing here.

Think Royce luxury chocolates from Japan. Have you tasted their Dark Chocolate coated Macadamias? Probably not, because they were still out of stock, the last time I checked. But they do have enough “I-deserve-this” chocolates stocked in their small stores in Rockwell and Greenbelt 5 to serve those who want to feel not just good, but much better after the turmoil of 2009 (from both man made and natural made disasters). Concerts and the movie industry will make a comeback (actually the growth of the movie industry in the US is eye-popping, thanks a lot to movies like Avatar. Consumers in the US are treating themselves to more movies as an escape from the reality of unemployment scares and subprime mortgage realities knocking on their doors.) Here in the Philippines, the movie industry has been so sickly for so long, it is definitely poised for a stunning turn around. Who knows? Wapakman might have been the answer if Dionisia Pacquiao were in it!

Don't forget to register to vote before the new deadline runs out again! We're out of space but not out of well wishes for all of our readers.Have a blessed new year! Send us your comments or questions to marketingrx@pldtdsl.net or drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com

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 MarketingRx for Jan 8, 2010

The entrepreneur's gut feel for 2010 (conclusion)

Happy New Year! Last week the junior MRxer looked into his magic gut to give you the first 3 of  seven market predictions for 2010.

Here are the remaining 4; here we go:

                

#4.  Let's go tripping! Biyahe na Pinoy! Tourism and travel executives will be smiling. With the so called “democratization” of travel a result of the price wars still going on in the airline industry (thank you Cebu Pacific for starting this!), domestic tourism will continue to also grow by double digits in 2010. Spurred by travel blogs (think of Anton Diaz's Our Awesome Planet blog) and online search for the best deals, Pinoy consumers will be plunking down paychecks into good travel deals. Expect excuses like “time to visit the long lost relatives in Cagayan de Oro, so might as well do some white water rafting” to crop up this year. Literally cool places will be favorite destinations of families again. Baguio will make a comeback (thank you Ad Congress for propping them up with your donation) and Tagaytay's roads will be merrily clogged again this Holy Week. Subic will benefit from the spanking, stateside-like highway also. The addition of the Philippines in NatGeo's List of Must Visit Places in 2010 will add up well for the travel industry. But here's hoping that places like Camsur and Bohol don't go the way of overcrowded-overdeveloped Boracay.

Pinoys will be happy travelling campers this season and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how to take advantage of this.

               

#5. Consumers as Healthy, Wholesome and Wise. Week-end markets like the Saturday Salcedo Market and the Sunday Legaspi Markets in Makati have been attracting the growing middle class. Films like Food, Inc are wising up consumers to choose what they put into their and their families mouths wisely. Worldwide, Walmart is now marking and labelling which products are organic – and thereby labelling the rest that are not as “inorganic” or less healthy. And we are not just talking about vegetables and fruits. Include meats in that list. What Walmart does, the rest of the retailing world usually follows. So expect a surge in “organic” consciousness. So while it is early, go and make the effort to grow organic and offer meats and food that has not been produced in “farm factories”. Be the first to offer beef and chicken labeled as “Hormone and antibiotic free”. (Just last week, a bill was filed to require even Dog Food marketers to list the ingredients of their products.) Expect new market entrant, Human Nature, which brands itself as "100 percent organic, 100 percent Philippine-grown and 100 percent chemical-free personal care products" to have explosive growth with its decision to go through the direct sales channel (and donate part of the proceeds to its advocacy, Gawad Kalinga. Human Nature is founded by Anna Meloto-Wilk and Camille Meloto, the daughters of GK Founder, Tony Meloto.) We received their products as Christmas gifts from our staff and their affordable and SLS-Free shampoos and lotions could give Body Shop a run for their money.

Seize this segment of the market and be first in it. Please. I will be your first customer and most viral of advocates.

. 

#6. Consumers will shop beyond the traditional. This means that “non traditional” distribution and sales channels will continue to grow thanks to more Filipinos trusting in the channels itself. Think of the internet and the thousands of Mom and Pop Multiply-type makeshift e-commerce sites. Think of the fastfood chains set up for internet ordering. Think of the movie ticket and concert ticket reservations online (more than half of Charice Pempengco's launch concert at the MOA recently was sold via Friendster). Ayala Mall's Sureseats online reservation system allowed this writer to buy tickets online 6 weeks before the Pacquiao-Cotto fight.) Christmas pasalubong shoppers will look online for special deals. Now that the online population of the Philippines has doubled (from 10% to more than 20%), you can't ignore this anymore. 

Finally, you can't count out the Direct Selling channel. Look at this non-traditional channel to sustain growth beyond Christmas. Just think of FernC, the vitamin C supplement that is now a billion peso brand thanks to its direct selling approach. This is something that it's older competitors have failed to do via the traditional Mercury Drug approach. At an international publishing conference in Kenya, I met the marketing director of a Brazilian publishing firm that has sold hundreds of thousands of books, including trendy pink leather bibles for girls, through direct selling giant, Avon.  The market in the Philippines is ripe for that kind of traditional products through non-traditional selling channels.

#7. Manny Pacquiao will knock out Floyd Mayweather (in court or in the ring). IF the biggest fight in boxing history pushes through this year, Filipino consumers (around the world) will be in a carry over fiesta mode from Pacquiao's victory.  Never mind that his Wapakman is a flop or that he won't be able to spend his way into winning a seat in congress in May. (Win or lose Manny should bring home a good chunk of the US$25M that he is reportedly guaranteed for the fight.)Think of this win over Mayweather as the equivalent of giving San Mig Coffee to a hyperactive 2 year old boy. That's what the Pacman's win (and his election spending spree) will do for the national economy and psyche. 

Manny's winning always gives us a break from bad news and bad numbers. Remember the 4 back to back typhoons that devastated the Philippines in 2009? Thanks to the Pacman's victory last 14^th of November,  the country all but forgotten those numbers—albeit even for a day or two. The victory has given us the permission to smile wide, open the wallet somewhat wider and spend to celebrate. And that always bodes well for the food and entertainment industry.

With election money expected to pour in the coming months leading to May, we hope that our inflation rate stays at the lowest is has ever been in more than 20 plus years. And if we elect a president that is smarter than Pumba and as brave and non-corruptible like Simba, then next Christmas Holiday season in 2010, we can all continue to say, as the Kenyans say in Swahili, “Hakuna Matata!” (No worries!). 

Have a blessed new year! Send us your comments or questions to marketingrx@pldtdsl.net or drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com

New Year's greetings and The Entrepreneurs Gut Feel of 2010 - part 1

Two days into 2010 and I feel hope and anticipation in the air. Many are hopeful that the perseverance and character that was sowed in 2009 by all the trials that marketers have been through will reap a harvest of blessings. 

Dr Ned and I wish all of our MarketingRx readers a new year filled with hope, prosperity, love and miracles! Here's to new life.

http://business.inquirer.net/money/columns/view/20091231-244894/The-entrepreneurs-gut-feel-for-2010

How to market Noynoy Aquino for President in 2010

MarketingRx for October 2-09

Marketing "Noynoy for President"? - part 1

By Dr Ned Roberto & Ardy Roberto

Q:  We work for an NGO advocating for change and for Noynoy in the coming 2010 election.  We read your column some 2 or 3 months ago saying that voters have a low involvement regard for the coming election and this is why the top 5 or 6 presidentiables have very close voting percentages.  To be frank, we disagreed and still do with your analysis and didn’t like at all what you predicted.  We were like the group who asked you the question in that column.  But we are different in that we believe many of the concepts about changing public behavior we found in your social marketing book. 

You wrote that column before the Noynoy phenomenon.  But now without the kind of Villar’s extra heavy ad campaign and without the other candidates’ shameless advertorial plugs, we’ve all seen how out of nowhere Noynoy grabbed the lead in the presidential race with an unbelievable 49% votes.  Surely, you can no longer say voters still have a low involvement regard for the coming election.  So what does your social marketing have to say now about our voters, our presidentiables that include Noynoy, and who will win in the coming election?

A:  You wrote an excellent brief note.  Thank you for your endorsement of the senior MR-er’s social marketing book.  Next, we’d like to go directly and respond to your questions. 

First, do voters no longer have a low involvement regard for the coming election? 

There are at least two important things to consider here.  The first of these is Noynoy’s 49% share of votes.  We probably can say that for those 49%, the low involvement attitude has been left probably in favor of the high at least for the present.  But as you probably still remember from your statistics, the flip side of that 49%  is the 51% who were not touched by Noynoy or by what happened to his Mom, Cory Aquino.  So the most we can say about the 49% statistic is that the playing field is now probably even between the low versus the high involvement voters.

This conclusion holds IF the 49% ratio represents a trend data.  But it is not a trend data.  It’s a single data point as of the date of that scientific and credible survey that did the reading.  To validly conclude about its voter behavior implication with regard to the likelihood of Noynoy’s winning the coming election, we need to see at least two more successive data points.  If that 49% is more or less maintained in the next two surveys, then it becomes reasonable to conclude that there’s a trend in favor of half the voter population sticking to Noynoy.  If, on the other hand, the next two surveys show an increase for each of these 2 surveys, then the trend is for the 49% to even increase further.  That will make Noynoy a stronger presidential candidate on the verge of becoming a dominant leading candidate.  Finally, if in the next 2 surveys, the 49% declines, then that 49% was no trend.  It was an “outlier” statistics representing a “surprise” or what author Nassim Taleb refers to as a “Black Swan” phenomenon that would, just as quickly as it appeared would just disappear or level off about the norm.

In all these 3 likelihoods, what’s of strategic significance is to understand the social force or forces underlying that 49%.  What made 49% of voters to suddenly want Noynoy for their president this coming election?  Without such an explanation, anyone’s intrepretation and recommendation are just as good as any other.         

That’s one social marketing answer to your question on who will win the coming election.  If we transform the question to relate specifically to Noynoy, we therefore ask: 

“Will Noynoy win the election?”  

Or translating the question to refer to your advocacy stand and resoluteness, the question becomes: “What will it take for Noynoy to win the election?”

The ideal would be for Noynoy to hold on to the 49% and if there should be a decline in this voting ratio, to arrest the decline to the lowest level of 30% or 34%.   Recall that Fidel Ramos won at a 24% share of votes.  That’s our benchline in this portion of the analysis.  Now, come May 2010, the final share of votes for any candidate will be determined first by the voters’ final voting decision and behavior.  But the other half in a candidate’s final share of votes is his or his party’s political machinery.  That other big factor is what we do not and cannot have from the survey. 

The political machinery includes, especially for the incumbent party, its capability and experience with a “hello-Garci” maneuver or many others of this type of vote hijacking.  Presumably, a 10% lead (i.e., 34% versus 24%) would represent too numerous a number of voters to hide under a “dagdag-bawas” (vote adding-vote deducting) manipulation.  So Noynoy can gain a decisive win with a low 34% or a high 49% SOV that he now commands.

Just how can your NGO and allies make this happen? Since we are out of space, we'll answer that question next Friday! 

Thanks for your questions. Keep sending them to drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com or marketingrx@pldtdsl.net or text us at 0918-3386412. God bless! 

MarketingRx for October 9-09

Marketing "Noynoy for President"? - conclusion

By Dr Ned Roberto & Ardy Roberto

Here's a repeat of the question posed last week by an NGO advocating for change and "marketing" Noynoy for President in 2010. They ask:

Q:  We read your column some 2 or 3 months ago saying that voters have a low involvement regard for the coming election and this is why the top 5 or 6 presidentiables have very close voting percentages.  To be frank, we disagreed and still do with your analysis and didn’t like at all what you predicted....

(But) you wrote that column before the Noynoy phenomenon.  But now without the kind of Villar’s extra heavy ad campaign and without the other candidates’ shameless advertorial plugs, we’ve all seen how out of nowhere Noynoy grabbed the lead in the presidential race with an unbelievable 49% votes.  Surely, you can no longer say voters still have a low involvement regard for the coming election.  So what does your social marketing have to say now about our voters, our presidentiables that include Noynoy, and who will win in the coming election?

Here's the continuation and conclusion to our answer from last Friday. (For those who missed it, visit our blog at marketingrx.org)

Word of Mouth and stickiness

First, find out the social force or forces underlying Noynoy's 49% share of votes (SOV).  That reason or reasons make up the raw materials for crafting Noynoy’s campaign message.  Then, that message has to be spread and, more importantly, kept at top-of-mind  consciousness among the voter population.  How to effectively accomplish this is found today in the growing word-of-mouth (WoM) marketing literature.

WoM marketing shows that the spread of a message can be multiplied by its “conversation value.”   That’s the quality of a message that makes it to its audience “buzzable” or, if you will, “Boy-Abunda-ble.”  Its initial recipients will like to talk to others about the message. 

If talking about your message takes only one or two rounds, its spread and top-of-mind character will be short-lived.  It needs another pass-on quality.  That’s the quality of “stickiness” according to Malcolm Gladwell in his best seller book, The Tipping Point.  Message stickiness, comes from the appropriate and timely use of message source and message context. 

When a message source is a celebrity or a respected figure of authority, the message source gives the message an enhanced stickiness.  It is stickiness that gets the message to be passed on more than 2 or more rounds. 

The powerful message context, according to Gladwell, is controversy.  But using controversy is a double-edged sword because it has positive as well as negative consequences.

Controversy

Conversation value and stickiness find its ultimate and ingenious application in Mel Gibson’s pre-selling of the movie, “The Passion of the Christ.”  Gibson did the following.  First, he spread the news that the Jewish communities were “mad at me because they said the movie made them look bad; it’s anti-semitic, they said.”  He then got emails to circulate in the Christian communities defending the movie.  Next, he somehow was able to get Entertainment Weekly to name the movie “the most controversial film of all times.”  This was followed by a movie review from the foremost movie critic Robert Ebert saying: “The full 10 minutes of flogging makes this the most violent film I have ever seen. … No level-minded parent should ever allow children to see this movie.”  That practically assured an eager children’s crowd for the movie.  Through all of these, the movie-going public talked about the movie and the media continued to do so as well.

So how did Gibson sustain the conversation value and stickiness of his WoM campaign for his movie?  He created a serial WoM “campaign” of sorts whose changing but unrelenting conversation value and stickiness held movie fans in suspended anticipation until the movie’s release and they all lined up to see it.  That’s the kind of WoM campaign that Noynoy requires for keeping his 49% SOV or for making sure its decline would stop at 34%.  His campaign message must have conversation value and stickness.  Then that message must be reformulated repeatedly and played in a serial schedule until election time.

We close by saying something about the social marketing model we applied above for shaping and directing voter behavior.  Among other things, the model versatility.  It can work for any other presidentiables.  An appropriate WoM campaign can be developed for the #2, #3 or even the #4 candidate aimed at matching and then excelling Noynoy’s SOV.  It’s a matter of having the necessary voter response and behavior data.  

Thanks for your questions. Keep sending them to drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com or marketingrx@pldtdsl.net or text us at 0918-3386412. God bless! Our writer's fees for this and last week goes to Operation Blessing's medical mission for Typhoon Ondoy victims. Please support relief efforts for the victims of Typhoon Ondoy. God bless!  God bless!

the missing link - part 2 of Are Loyal Customers Really Profitable

Thanks to Tara who called my attention about the missing part 2 of our column. Here it is. Click on the link and it will take you to Inquirer.net